The team’s have endured back to back races in tough (hot) conditions and while some people feel the real season won’t start until the Spanish Grand Prix, I think a few things are coming to the fore that will provide the theme of this season’s championship.

1. BMW are the fly in the ointment for Ferrari and McLaren. If either of the top two teams stumble during a race this season, they won’t just fall behind their main rivals - odds are they’ll fall behind BMW as well. With BMW able to match the pace of McLaren and showing better reliability than Ferrari, the damage from a bad weekend will be greater than what either team faced last year. Unlike 2007, the front runners are now looking over their shoulders.

2. Toyota weren’t grandstanding! I can say it - I was wrong. I honestly thought that Toyota were going to be nowhere this season but happily the team with megabucks have proven me, and many others wrong. We never really got to see Trulli’s ultimate pace in Melbourne but in Malaysia, he put in a strong qualifying performance and followed it up with a determined run to fourth, holding off a late charging Lewis Hamilton. Toyota aren’t quite with BMW yet but they seem to have the measure of Red Bull and Williams. As a qualifying specialist, Trulli should not be underestimated and he might wreck the race plans of more than one driver this season.

3 . Massa is looking hopeless. Wow, can it get any worse for Felipe Massa? Two races, two unforced and very amateurish driving errors. Worse, the second ‘off’ cost him an assured second place. I haven’t even brought up the silly crash with David Coulthard in Australia. F1 claims it has the best drivers in the world so you would expect that lapping the track would be fairly easy stuff. Apparently not for Massa who is looking more and more uncomfortable in a world without traction control. He’s 14 points behind Hamilton after two races and can already kiss his title shot goodbye. If he doesn’t improve, Ferrari will not be able to hold onto the Constructor’s Title.

4. Ferrari have a serious reliability issue. I’m not sure of the count but…let’s see, in Australia we had Kimi’s engine expire, Felipe’s engine expire and Sebastian’s engine explode. Interestingly, in Australia Adrian Sutil’s Ferrari powered Force India had ‘hydraulics’ problems and again in Malaysia. It wouldn’t be so suspicious if Sebastian Vettel’s Ferrari powered Torro Rosso didn’t also fail because of hydraulics in Malaysia. So in all, six Ferrari powered cars have failed to finish for mechanical reasons in two races. That’s a 50% failure rate. Even in the dark days before Schumacher at Ferrari, the team wasn’t this bad, was it? With engine homologation looming, now is not the time for problems.

5. Alonso is showing a champion’s character. Fernando put in a scrappy race in Australia and between the retirements of those in front of him and the bizarre pit-limiter mistake from Heikki Kovaleinen that slowed his car right after passing Alonso, the Renault driver was lucky to steal fourth place. Still, unlike most, he tamed the Australian circuit without the aid of traction control. In Malaysia, he put in a hard fought race, dispatching David Coulthard and harassing Mark Webber relentlessly at the end of the race for the reward of a single point. There have been many former champions who just switch off and fade as soon as they aren’t fighting for wins (Hill, Hunt, Scheckter) but Alonso is not one of them. He flogged a pretty awful car around the track with sublime control. He seems at ease at Renault and back on the form that marked him as one of the most complete drivers in F1 - past or present. I’m happy he’s back to normal.

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It’s a sad fact that there are five teams in this category but all of these teams are facing the possibility of single digit points tallies at the end of the season and frankly, that makes them pretenders. Amazingly, only one team can claim they don’t have the cash to develop a winning car and that’s Super Aguri. It’s a miracle they even made it to Australia but that’s a story for another time.

So, without further fanfare and because first practice is only a few hours away, here are my thoughts and predictions on the 2008 pretenders of F1.

Toyota - How a team can spend half a billion dollars (500,000,000.00 - would you look at those zeros!) year after year and accomplish nothing staggers the mind. Toyota might have deserved to be in the previous group I reviewed but frankly, there’s no reason to think that some of their recent testing times were anything other than publicity grabs. Until this team unshackles itself from the corporate boardroom in Japan it will continue to under perform. Not signing either Ross Brawn as Team Principle or Fernando Alonso - even for a season - was yet another missed opportunity. Verdict: Mega money to spend but just more mediocre results to show for it.

Honda - Apparently the hole that Honda fell into last year was deeper than anyone thought. Again, a racing team cannot be run from the boardroom in Japan. Honda installed a completely unqualified technical director in 2006 and sent a top designer packing. It made no sense but the results were devastating - from contenders to joke in one season. Hopefully with Brawn at the helm and an on-form Button behind the wheel they can turn the corner mid-season. The struggle back to the front is going to be a character builder for everyone in the team. Verdict: More upheaval expected within the design team and few trips to the final qualifying session until near the end of the year.

Scuderia Torro Rosso - The Red Bull juniors are still a driver development team running second hand cars. Bravo for giving Sebastian Bourdais a much overdue F1 drive. Whether either driver will have a breakout year is open to debate though most of the paddock seem to think that the other Sebastian - Vettel, is the real deal. The team have adequate funding but the development of the car will come only after it’s been proven with the Red Bull Racing Squad. Verdict: With the quality of teams ahead of them, I expect them in the barriers more often than the points.

Force India - This team chews up and spits out millionaire owners like a bad monster movie. Jordan - Midland - Spyker and now Force India - the name changing never stops! The team have had some moments in testing but I can remember when Prost looked like title contenders in winter testing only to go broke before the year was over. The driver pairing looks interesting if a bit optimistic. Giancarlo Fisichella has a reputation for doing big things when expectations are low and after his last three seasons with Renault expectations are definitely low. Adrian Sutil still seems a little wild but if he can get the better of Fisi then he’ll be on to bigger and better things. Verdict: No better results this year than what you would have expected from Midland or Spyker in the past.

Super Aguri - What high hopes everyone had for the little team of super friends. Now, bought out by a conglomerate of investors, one has to wonder if Super Aguri will be the next Jordan-Midland-Spyker-Force India. It’s quite obvious that it is not possible to enter F1 without serious corporate backing. Aguri have done almost zero development work on their 2008 car - in fact, it’s safe to say that all their efforts were put into surviving, not finding another tenth of a second. Whether the name or the team remain for long is open to debate and that’s a pity. Verdict: The year will be summed up in one word for the team and its fans - ‘disappointment.’

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With only a handful of days before the 2008 season starts we’ll finally be able to identify the pretenders from the contenders. Despite the hype and some of the lap times set at tracks in the warmer parts of the world, the pecking order in F1 will remain the same as it has been.

Winter testing times might have hinted that fans could expect some real movement up and down the grid but single lap times need to be taken with a grain of salt. Renault and Toyota topped the time sheets at various venues but they won’t be on the front row of the grid in Australia. Torro Rosso and Force India were occasionally mid-pack in testing but don’t expect them to be trading paint with BMW or WilliamsF1 any time soon.

Success in Formula 1 is seldom instant, especially when the rules are as static as they have been the past few seasons. The traction control ban will result in more driver errors but these will be experienced by all the teams so it will balance out over the season. Typically, teams only make giant leaps backwards in performance from year to year - just ask Honda.

To really assess a team’s chances of success, it’s important to look at a team’s performance over several seasons. Were they quick but unreliable last season? Have they found reliability over the winter? Do they have the budget to continually develop the car? Is there continuity in the team with both drivers and designers? If the answer to all of these questions is yes, it might signal a readiness to move closer to winning. Might.

Over the next few days I’ll explain what I believe each of the F1 teams (hopefully 11 when we arrive in Melbourne) will achieve this season in F1 and why. There’s no science involved in this process, it’s all alchemy, beer and too much time spent on the internet. Enjoy!

The Front Runners

Ferrari - 2007 championship winners and dominant team of the decade, Ferrari look unlikely to suddenly come off the rails. Both drivers are returning and Kimi Raikonnen, who in mid 2007 looked shaky is now brimming with confidence in himself and his car. The team has had excellent form in winter testing and no major changes have taken place in the management or design departments. Clearly the team have shown that there is life after Ross Brawn and Michael Schumacher.

Like every other year, the coffers are also overflowing with cash and there will be a steady stream of development happening all season long. Verdict: Clear favorites to retain their titles.

McLaren -After a disastrous season that saw the team disqualified and one driver quitting at the end of the year, McLaren will be focused on steadying the ship and consolidating their efforts around Lewis Hamilton - regardless of whatever equality talk there is. McLaren had a strong technical package last season- it was off the track where things came apart. Neither driver has much experience developing or setting up the car and thanks to the spy scandal, there are some design restrictions around the 2008 car that might additionally hamper its ultimate development. Verdict: McLaren are the only team able to challenge Ferrari. Challenge, not beat.

Next: The Midfield

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I’m still on a bit of a high from the Jackie Stewart book signing last week and my inspired investigations into the Scot’s career tell the tale of a man who left the sport at exactly the right moment - at the pinnacle of success and in one piece. With his third world championship secured and with the death of his teammate and friend, Francois Cevert, at Watkins Glen fresh in his mind, Jackie retired from F1. That decision cemented Stewart as a legend in the sport.

Fast forward to the present and the announcement from Force India (the latest incarnation of Jordan F1) that they have signed Giancarlo Fisichella for two years. If ever there was someone in the sport today who should consider how helpful retirement would be to their reputation, its Fisichella.

While the Italian driver was at Minardi, Jordan, Bennetton, Jordan (again) and Sauber, people claimed Fisi was a champion in waiting who just needed a winning car. Pundits rated him amongst the top three racers in the sport. Of course, he finally landed a winning car in 2005 and 2006. So what happened? Well, Fisichella managed to win one race each year. Meanwhile, his teammate won 14 races and 2 world championships. By all accounts a pretty underwhelming performance.

So at 35, Fisichella has raced in twelve seasons of F1 - 196 races (nearly twice as many as Stewart -99) and is looking forward to another two years of racing at the very back of the grid. To what end? What will another two years of making up the numbers and touring around in circles provide? Instinctively I can say there won’t be wins or even podiums and there won’t be anymore talk of, “if only…” from the pundits.

What there will be is one more driver who believes he is entitled to his place in F1 and will stubbornly stay in the sport, only to deprive some young and talented rookie from starting his career. I believe everyone should get a chance at the brass ring and now Fisi has had his and missed. Its time to get off the merry-go-round that is F1 and give a youngster a chance.

Giancarlo, your contemporaries have moved on, voluntarily or not, and its time you did the same.

Really.

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