A year ago BMW driver Robert Kubica sat in the wreckage of his car awaiting an airlift to hospital. Today he stood atop the podium, winner of the Canadian Grand Prix. What a difference a year makes.

Kubica has threatened to win several times this season but the overall pace of the McLaren and Ferrari cars has denied BMW and left the team looking to take advantage of a mistake from their rivals. Today, McLaren’s Lewis Hamilton handed them just such an opportunity on a silver platter.

When the safety car was deployed on lap 18 so Adrian Sutil’s car could be removed, the front runners all pitted for fuel and tires. Hamilton, who had led from the start, found himself third when exiting his pit box. In his eagerness to catch up he failed to see the red light at the end of the pit lane that instructs drivers to wait until the safety car has passed before proceeding. He slammed into the back of the stationary Ferrari of Kimi Raikkonen. Both drivers were unable to continue.

The melee left Kubica in a great position to win if he could avoid any drama for the rest of the race. Fortunately for Kubica, his only real threat on the track was teammate Nick Heidfeld who was operating on a different fuel strategy.

Predictably, the safety car jumbled the field, putting several faster cars behind slower drivers but both BMW drivers were able to take advantage. Heidfeld stormed off into the lead, able to pit and rejoin the race ahead of his teammate with help from slower cars positioned between them on the track.

Kubica, driving with a lighter fuel load and able to find a faster ultimate pace around the Montreal track jumped past his teammate during his second pit stop. Once the stops were completed by all the drivers, Kubica moved up to first, followed by his teammate to complete a perfect 1-2 finish for BMW.

The race proved to be an opportunity for midfield teams as well. With so many front runners failing to finish, the smaller teams doggedly fought to the flag to the delight of the fans. Red Bull, Toyota, Honda and Torro Rosso all walked away with unexpected spoils.

BMW scored their first win in style with a strong 1-2 finish which catapulted them into second place in the Constructors Championship, three points behind Ferrari. Kubica now finds himself in the lead of the driver’s standings with a third of the season completed.

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Once more, the Canadian Grand Prix produces an historic race and an incredibly unpredictable result.

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The Bahrain Grand Prix is over and the teams are heading back to Europe where the ‘real’ season will start in earnest in three weeks. The action on the track was nowhere near the excitement that goes on in Max Mosley’s bedroom but it still provided a few things worth pondering. After three rounds of the 2008 season, here are five points to consider.

1. The British press still have a beef with Fernando Alonso - Of course Lewis Hamilton would collide with Alonso! Or, if you believe some suggestions in the British Press - Fernando gave Lewis a bit of the old brake business. Come on! There was nothing to it but a racing mistake from a sophomore driver. Hamilton was flustered by a bad start, got anxious and hit a fuel-heavy Fernando in the rear - both drivers suffered as a result in the race. The countless suggestion from James Allen and Martin Brundle during the broadcast that it might have been more sinister than that was a desperate attempt at drumming up some drama that was nowhere to be seen in the race. Shame on you ITV!

2. BMW are derailing McLaren’s championship plans - The Scuderia must not know what to think when they look over their shoulders these days - the silver cars aren’t there! BMW are definitely on the move but the team from Hinwil don’t have the experience to challenge Ferrari for the title. McLaren are the team that everyone was expecting to take the fight to Ferrari - problem is, they seem to be stuck behind BMW!

3. Ferrari are running away with the season - The wunderkid from Stevenage seems to have come in contact with some Kryptonyte this season and is unable to take the fight to Ferrari. In a near repeat of last season’s closing races, Hamilton has squandered a 10 point lead in the championship and now trails Kimi Raikkonen by four points. If McLaren can’t find the pace to get around BMW and into a position to attack Ferrari, the season is all but settled. We’ll only have to wait for Jean Todt to mastermind one of his famous coin tosses to see which Ferrari driver will win the championship.

4. David Coulthard is racing his last season - Someone get this guy bigger mirrors! What can you say, the boil has come off this guy - the fire in the belly is gone along with his peripheral vision. There are a 1000 drivers who would kill to be in that Red Bull RB4 and they’re not going to have to wait much longer.

5. Renault are going backwards faster than the R28 can go forwards - Fourth, eighth, tenth - anyone else see the trend here? Renault are in need of some major upgrades on the car if they want to avoid being swallowed up by Red Bull, Toyota and Williams. Alonso has been driving well and that’s worth a few tenths but they need to find a second quickly which is unheard of in F1. If the rumors are true, and there are performance clauses in Fernando’s contract that let him leave if they aren’t competitive, then Renault have a crisis on their hands.

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Today, the deafening silence that has followed allegations of tawdry exploits involving  FIA President Max Mosley was broken by four auto manufacturers determined to distance themselves from the scandal.  BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Honda and Toyota all issued statements that make it clear that Mosley has a struggle ahead to keep his Presidency.

BMW and Mercedes-Benz issued the following joint statement this morning:

“The content of the publications is disgraceful. As a company, we strongly distance ourselves from it. This incident concerns Max Mosley both personally and as President of the FIA, the global umbrella organisation for motoring clubs. Its consequences therefore extend far beyond the motor sport industry. We await a response from the relevant FIA bodies.”

Honda issued a similar release later in the day:

“It is necessary that senior figures in sport and business maintain the highest standards of conduct in order to fulfil their duties with integrity and respect. The Honda Racing F1 Team is extremely disappointed by recent events surrounding Mr Mosley and we are concerned that the reputation of Formula One and all its participants is being damaged. We request that the FIA gives this matter careful consideration and reaches an immediate decision in the best interests of F1 and Motorsport.” 

And Toyota echoed all these sentiments with the following statement:

“Toyota Motorsport does not approve of any behaviour which could be seen to damage Formula 1’s image, in particular any behaviour which could be understood to be racist or anti-Semitic. Senior figures within any sport or business, including motorsport, must adhere to high standards of behaviour. When all the facts are known, it will be for the FIA to decide whether Mr Mosley has met the moral obligations which come with the position of FIA President.”

If all this were not enough, the Crown Prince of Bahrain, Sheikh Salman Bin Hamad Al-Khalifa, has requested that Mr. Mosley not attend this weekend’s Grand Prix in Bahrain.

With the silence now broken, voices in the sport (respected and otherwise) are speaking out, calling for Mosley’s resignation.  Against the growing momentum of disconent, there is not a voice of support for Mosley to be heard.

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The team’s have endured back to back races in tough (hot) conditions and while some people feel the real season won’t start until the Spanish Grand Prix, I think a few things are coming to the fore that will provide the theme of this season’s championship.

1. BMW are the fly in the ointment for Ferrari and McLaren. If either of the top two teams stumble during a race this season, they won’t just fall behind their main rivals - odds are they’ll fall behind BMW as well. With BMW able to match the pace of McLaren and showing better reliability than Ferrari, the damage from a bad weekend will be greater than what either team faced last year. Unlike 2007, the front runners are now looking over their shoulders.

2. Toyota weren’t grandstanding! I can say it - I was wrong. I honestly thought that Toyota were going to be nowhere this season but happily the team with megabucks have proven me, and many others wrong. We never really got to see Trulli’s ultimate pace in Melbourne but in Malaysia, he put in a strong qualifying performance and followed it up with a determined run to fourth, holding off a late charging Lewis Hamilton. Toyota aren’t quite with BMW yet but they seem to have the measure of Red Bull and Williams. As a qualifying specialist, Trulli should not be underestimated and he might wreck the race plans of more than one driver this season.

3 . Massa is looking hopeless. Wow, can it get any worse for Felipe Massa? Two races, two unforced and very amateurish driving errors. Worse, the second ‘off’ cost him an assured second place. I haven’t even brought up the silly crash with David Coulthard in Australia. F1 claims it has the best drivers in the world so you would expect that lapping the track would be fairly easy stuff. Apparently not for Massa who is looking more and more uncomfortable in a world without traction control. He’s 14 points behind Hamilton after two races and can already kiss his title shot goodbye. If he doesn’t improve, Ferrari will not be able to hold onto the Constructor’s Title.

4. Ferrari have a serious reliability issue. I’m not sure of the count but…let’s see, in Australia we had Kimi’s engine expire, Felipe’s engine expire and Sebastian’s engine explode. Interestingly, in Australia Adrian Sutil’s Ferrari powered Force India had ‘hydraulics’ problems and again in Malaysia. It wouldn’t be so suspicious if Sebastian Vettel’s Ferrari powered Torro Rosso didn’t also fail because of hydraulics in Malaysia. So in all, six Ferrari powered cars have failed to finish for mechanical reasons in two races. That’s a 50% failure rate. Even in the dark days before Schumacher at Ferrari, the team wasn’t this bad, was it? With engine homologation looming, now is not the time for problems.

5. Alonso is showing a champion’s character. Fernando put in a scrappy race in Australia and between the retirements of those in front of him and the bizarre pit-limiter mistake from Heikki Kovaleinen that slowed his car right after passing Alonso, the Renault driver was lucky to steal fourth place. Still, unlike most, he tamed the Australian circuit without the aid of traction control. In Malaysia, he put in a hard fought race, dispatching David Coulthard and harassing Mark Webber relentlessly at the end of the race for the reward of a single point. There have been many former champions who just switch off and fade as soon as they aren’t fighting for wins (Hill, Hunt, Scheckter) but Alonso is not one of them. He flogged a pretty awful car around the track with sublime control. He seems at ease at Renault and back on the form that marked him as one of the most complete drivers in F1 - past or present. I’m happy he’s back to normal.

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With only a handful of days before the 2008 season starts we’ll finally be able to identify the pretenders from the contenders. Despite the hype and some of the lap times set at tracks in the warmer parts of the world, the pecking order in F1 will remain the same as it has been.

Winter testing times might have hinted that fans could expect some real movement up and down the grid but single lap times need to be taken with a grain of salt. Renault and Toyota topped the time sheets at various venues but they won’t be on the front row of the grid in Australia. Torro Rosso and Force India were occasionally mid-pack in testing but don’t expect them to be trading paint with BMW or WilliamsF1 any time soon.

Success in Formula 1 is seldom instant, especially when the rules are as static as they have been the past few seasons. The traction control ban will result in more driver errors but these will be experienced by all the teams so it will balance out over the season. Typically, teams only make giant leaps backwards in performance from year to year - just ask Honda.

To really assess a team’s chances of success, it’s important to look at a team’s performance over several seasons. Were they quick but unreliable last season? Have they found reliability over the winter? Do they have the budget to continually develop the car? Is there continuity in the team with both drivers and designers? If the answer to all of these questions is yes, it might signal a readiness to move closer to winning. Might.

Over the next few days I’ll explain what I believe each of the F1 teams (hopefully 11 when we arrive in Melbourne) will achieve this season in F1 and why. There’s no science involved in this process, it’s all alchemy, beer and too much time spent on the internet. Enjoy!

The Front Runners

Ferrari - 2007 championship winners and dominant team of the decade, Ferrari look unlikely to suddenly come off the rails. Both drivers are returning and Kimi Raikonnen, who in mid 2007 looked shaky is now brimming with confidence in himself and his car. The team has had excellent form in winter testing and no major changes have taken place in the management or design departments. Clearly the team have shown that there is life after Ross Brawn and Michael Schumacher.

Like every other year, the coffers are also overflowing with cash and there will be a steady stream of development happening all season long. Verdict: Clear favorites to retain their titles.

McLaren -After a disastrous season that saw the team disqualified and one driver quitting at the end of the year, McLaren will be focused on steadying the ship and consolidating their efforts around Lewis Hamilton - regardless of whatever equality talk there is. McLaren had a strong technical package last season- it was off the track where things came apart. Neither driver has much experience developing or setting up the car and thanks to the spy scandal, there are some design restrictions around the 2008 car that might additionally hamper its ultimate development. Verdict: McLaren are the only team able to challenge Ferrari. Challenge, not beat.

Next: The Midfield

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