The team’s have endured back to back races in tough (hot) conditions and while some people feel the real season won’t start until the Spanish Grand Prix, I think a few things are coming to the fore that will provide the theme of this season’s championship.

1. BMW are the fly in the ointment for Ferrari and McLaren. If either of the top two teams stumble during a race this season, they won’t just fall behind their main rivals - odds are they’ll fall behind BMW as well. With BMW able to match the pace of McLaren and showing better reliability than Ferrari, the damage from a bad weekend will be greater than what either team faced last year. Unlike 2007, the front runners are now looking over their shoulders.

2. Toyota weren’t grandstanding! I can say it - I was wrong. I honestly thought that Toyota were going to be nowhere this season but happily the team with megabucks have proven me, and many others wrong. We never really got to see Trulli’s ultimate pace in Melbourne but in Malaysia, he put in a strong qualifying performance and followed it up with a determined run to fourth, holding off a late charging Lewis Hamilton. Toyota aren’t quite with BMW yet but they seem to have the measure of Red Bull and Williams. As a qualifying specialist, Trulli should not be underestimated and he might wreck the race plans of more than one driver this season.

3 . Massa is looking hopeless. Wow, can it get any worse for Felipe Massa? Two races, two unforced and very amateurish driving errors. Worse, the second ‘off’ cost him an assured second place. I haven’t even brought up the silly crash with David Coulthard in Australia. F1 claims it has the best drivers in the world so you would expect that lapping the track would be fairly easy stuff. Apparently not for Massa who is looking more and more uncomfortable in a world without traction control. He’s 14 points behind Hamilton after two races and can already kiss his title shot goodbye. If he doesn’t improve, Ferrari will not be able to hold onto the Constructor’s Title.

4. Ferrari have a serious reliability issue. I’m not sure of the count but…let’s see, in Australia we had Kimi’s engine expire, Felipe’s engine expire and Sebastian’s engine explode. Interestingly, in Australia Adrian Sutil’s Ferrari powered Force India had ‘hydraulics’ problems and again in Malaysia. It wouldn’t be so suspicious if Sebastian Vettel’s Ferrari powered Torro Rosso didn’t also fail because of hydraulics in Malaysia. So in all, six Ferrari powered cars have failed to finish for mechanical reasons in two races. That’s a 50% failure rate. Even in the dark days before Schumacher at Ferrari, the team wasn’t this bad, was it? With engine homologation looming, now is not the time for problems.

5. Alonso is showing a champion’s character. Fernando put in a scrappy race in Australia and between the retirements of those in front of him and the bizarre pit-limiter mistake from Heikki Kovaleinen that slowed his car right after passing Alonso, the Renault driver was lucky to steal fourth place. Still, unlike most, he tamed the Australian circuit without the aid of traction control. In Malaysia, he put in a hard fought race, dispatching David Coulthard and harassing Mark Webber relentlessly at the end of the race for the reward of a single point. There have been many former champions who just switch off and fade as soon as they aren’t fighting for wins (Hill, Hunt, Scheckter) but Alonso is not one of them. He flogged a pretty awful car around the track with sublime control. He seems at ease at Renault and back on the form that marked him as one of the most complete drivers in F1 - past or present. I’m happy he’s back to normal.

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Here’s a photo you can file under ‘B’ for bullshit. Below is a picture pulled from the F1.com website with the caption, ” Race fans arrive ahead of the Grand Prix.” Perhaps things are different in Australia. I had no idea that stilettos were common footwear for climbing 12 story high bleachers or that the team’s were now offering designer dresses to fans instead of T-shirts and baseball caps. Italia beware - Australia looks set to be the new fashion capital of the world.

Seriously though, does Bernie Ecclestone really expect the world to believe that these women are representative of F1 fans? He might have more success convincing me if he hired someone to use Photoshop to remove the VIP passes they’re wearing from the photo. For those who have never seen one, a paddock pass gets you just about anywhere, no questions asked and I’m sure the idea of one in the hands of the great unwashed keeps Bernie awake at night.

I’ll bet a round of beers that none of those women even paid for their passes. Unlike you and I, they didn’t fork over hundreds of dollars for the privilege of sitting in bleachers under the hot sun and paying four times the going price for a beer. I’ll even bet another round that they can’t name half the drivers even though they probably had their photos taken with most of them on the grid. It kills me.

Maybe if someone out there knows Bernie personally, they can ask him, “What’s so wrong with real F1 fans that you can’t put their photos on your website?” Does excitement and passion not photograph well?

Maybe we’re not Bernie’s kind of people. Lucky for us, we just happen to have his kind of money.

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It’s several hours after the Australian Grand Prix has ended and I’m still pretty sure that I saw a motor race! I saw some scrappy racing, some cars getting sideways in the corners and some huge crashes so probably yes, it was a motor race! Other than the crashes - some of which should definitely have been avoided by the so-called, “best drivers in the world,” I really liked what I saw. I’m also pretty damn glad that the season has started, I couldn’t have waited much longer.

Looking back over the results and thinking back on my overall impression of the first race of the year, here are some things I think we can all be thankful for from the Australian Grand Prix.

1. Ferrari didn’t dominate like winter testing suggested. Despite all the evidence that Ferrari were going to run away from everyone early in the season, they fell apart - very vintage, pre-Shumacher Ferrari. Both drivers were particularly ragged in the race and the single point Kimi picked up was definitely not deserved. They need to regroup for next week.

2. The FIA got the traction control ban spot on. I hate saying the FIA got something right, but the standardized ECU with no traction control and no engine braking is doing the job of separating the good from the great. There are a half-dozen drivers who probably hate the new ultra-touchy cars and think it’s unsafe but then, there are 1000 hungry drivers out there who want a chance to be a grand prix driver so get over it and start driving like you belong in Formula 1!

3. Sportsmanship. It was nice to see Lewis Hamilton being genuinely happy for Nico Rosberg after the race. Nico was clearly excited to be on the podium (his first trip there) and it’s fitting that after the checkered flag drops, the drivers can celebrate the accomplishments of one another. A great post-race feed from Australia let fans see a different side of F1. After the politics and machinations of 2007, it was refreshing.

4 . Honda, Red Bull, Toyota and Torro Rosso are all faster than expected. I really expected all of these teams to be quite a ways back from the chasing pack of BMW, Williams, Red Bull and Renault and yet, there they were, mixing it up in qualifying. If the first corner melee had been avoided, there might have been far fewer points to take home for Renault, Ferrari and Williams. It bodes well for those fans who like to see drivers scrapping for every point.

5. Three drivers, three different teams on the podium. It was a bit fortunate that McLaren didn’t walk to a 1-2 finish but it’s a sign of a competitive grid when three teams can stand on the podium. Sadly, Ferrari and McLaren will occupy the top placings on most days but with a bit more Melbourne style chaos at the start of the races, fans might see some unfamiliar faces holding up the trophies.

Let’s hope Malaysia gives us more of this brave, new Formula 1.

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It’s a sad fact that there are five teams in this category but all of these teams are facing the possibility of single digit points tallies at the end of the season and frankly, that makes them pretenders. Amazingly, only one team can claim they don’t have the cash to develop a winning car and that’s Super Aguri. It’s a miracle they even made it to Australia but that’s a story for another time.

So, without further fanfare and because first practice is only a few hours away, here are my thoughts and predictions on the 2008 pretenders of F1.

Toyota - How a team can spend half a billion dollars (500,000,000.00 - would you look at those zeros!) year after year and accomplish nothing staggers the mind. Toyota might have deserved to be in the previous group I reviewed but frankly, there’s no reason to think that some of their recent testing times were anything other than publicity grabs. Until this team unshackles itself from the corporate boardroom in Japan it will continue to under perform. Not signing either Ross Brawn as Team Principle or Fernando Alonso - even for a season - was yet another missed opportunity. Verdict: Mega money to spend but just more mediocre results to show for it.

Honda - Apparently the hole that Honda fell into last year was deeper than anyone thought. Again, a racing team cannot be run from the boardroom in Japan. Honda installed a completely unqualified technical director in 2006 and sent a top designer packing. It made no sense but the results were devastating - from contenders to joke in one season. Hopefully with Brawn at the helm and an on-form Button behind the wheel they can turn the corner mid-season. The struggle back to the front is going to be a character builder for everyone in the team. Verdict: More upheaval expected within the design team and few trips to the final qualifying session until near the end of the year.

Scuderia Torro Rosso - The Red Bull juniors are still a driver development team running second hand cars. Bravo for giving Sebastian Bourdais a much overdue F1 drive. Whether either driver will have a breakout year is open to debate though most of the paddock seem to think that the other Sebastian - Vettel, is the real deal. The team have adequate funding but the development of the car will come only after it’s been proven with the Red Bull Racing Squad. Verdict: With the quality of teams ahead of them, I expect them in the barriers more often than the points.

Force India - This team chews up and spits out millionaire owners like a bad monster movie. Jordan - Midland - Spyker and now Force India - the name changing never stops! The team have had some moments in testing but I can remember when Prost looked like title contenders in winter testing only to go broke before the year was over. The driver pairing looks interesting if a bit optimistic. Giancarlo Fisichella has a reputation for doing big things when expectations are low and after his last three seasons with Renault expectations are definitely low. Adrian Sutil still seems a little wild but if he can get the better of Fisi then he’ll be on to bigger and better things. Verdict: No better results this year than what you would have expected from Midland or Spyker in the past.

Super Aguri - What high hopes everyone had for the little team of super friends. Now, bought out by a conglomerate of investors, one has to wonder if Super Aguri will be the next Jordan-Midland-Spyker-Force India. It’s quite obvious that it is not possible to enter F1 without serious corporate backing. Aguri have done almost zero development work on their 2008 car - in fact, it’s safe to say that all their efforts were put into surviving, not finding another tenth of a second. Whether the name or the team remain for long is open to debate and that’s a pity. Verdict: The year will be summed up in one word for the team and its fans - ‘disappointment.’

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I’m convinced that if you removed (disqualified?) Ferrari and McLaren from the championship, we’d see the most competitive season of F1 in decades - maybe ever. Behind those two teams are four other entrants with very little between them in terms of pure performance. The competition will be fierce because a mistake on race weekend from any of them could turn a potential fifth place into a 12th place.

Here are my thoughts on how the chasing pack will stack up in 2008:

BMW - Before they challenge the Big Two, BMW will have to defend their third place position from Renault, Williams and Red Bull. Steady progress last season seemed to come off the rails temporarily over the winter. Both team drivers have complained about the car’s balance but it seems to be sorted out. There were no major staff changes over the winter so design continuity is still there. Verdict: Will spend the season defending the rear, not attacking the front.

Renault - The team are betting that with the return of Alonso, there will be a corresponding return to the front. Renault started there 2008 development early and the technical staff remain in place. The car has shown some form in testing but it’s not good enough to challenge either Ferrari or McLaren. Nelson Piquet has shown nothing that would indicate he poses a threat to Alonso so the Spaniard should settle in quickly and return to his championship winning form. Verdict: Will challenge for third place - but without two strong drivers, they will ultimately finish 4th ot 5th.

Williams - In 2007, the team righted a badly listing ship. Reliability which had sunk them in 2006 seemed to have been addressed and in Nico Rosberg they found a future star. Over the winter, the team have been consistently at or near the top of the time sheets and Williams are not a team known for showboating. Frank has amassed a respectable war chest to campaign with and the addition of a new wind tunnel will allow the team should be able to develop the car all season. Verdict: An outside chance for third which would be well deserved but more likely fourth at the end of the year.

Red Bull - On paper, this team should be ready to move forward in 2008. They have their second Adrian Newey designed car, a fabulous budget, Renault engines and two competent drivers. In 2007 they struggled with reliability, especially around the gearbox, but from winter testing, it looks to have been resolved. Still, I don’t know if they have the experience and determination to beat any of the other teams in this group. It will take a special car to do it. Verdict: Some moments of glory, but a year of learning how to be successful.

The pretenders and more in part 3.

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