I’m convinced that if you removed (disqualified?) Ferrari and McLaren from the championship, we’d see the most competitive season of F1 in decades - maybe ever. Behind those two teams are four other entrants with very little between them in terms of pure performance. The competition will be fierce because a mistake on race weekend from any of them could turn a potential fifth place into a 12th place.

Here are my thoughts on how the chasing pack will stack up in 2008:

BMW - Before they challenge the Big Two, BMW will have to defend their third place position from Renault, Williams and Red Bull. Steady progress last season seemed to come off the rails temporarily over the winter. Both team drivers have complained about the car’s balance but it seems to be sorted out. There were no major staff changes over the winter so design continuity is still there. Verdict: Will spend the season defending the rear, not attacking the front.

Renault - The team are betting that with the return of Alonso, there will be a corresponding return to the front. Renault started there 2008 development early and the technical staff remain in place. The car has shown some form in testing but it’s not good enough to challenge either Ferrari or McLaren. Nelson Piquet has shown nothing that would indicate he poses a threat to Alonso so the Spaniard should settle in quickly and return to his championship winning form. Verdict: Will challenge for third place - but without two strong drivers, they will ultimately finish 4th ot 5th.

Williams - In 2007, the team righted a badly listing ship. Reliability which had sunk them in 2006 seemed to have been addressed and in Nico Rosberg they found a future star. Over the winter, the team have been consistently at or near the top of the time sheets and Williams are not a team known for showboating. Frank has amassed a respectable war chest to campaign with and the addition of a new wind tunnel will allow the team should be able to develop the car all season. Verdict: An outside chance for third which would be well deserved but more likely fourth at the end of the year.

Red Bull - On paper, this team should be ready to move forward in 2008. They have their second Adrian Newey designed car, a fabulous budget, Renault engines and two competent drivers. In 2007 they struggled with reliability, especially around the gearbox, but from winter testing, it looks to have been resolved. Still, I don’t know if they have the experience and determination to beat any of the other teams in this group. It will take a special car to do it. Verdict: Some moments of glory, but a year of learning how to be successful.

The pretenders and more in part 3.

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