With only a handful of days before the 2008 season starts we’ll finally be able to identify the pretenders from the contenders. Despite the hype and some of the lap times set at tracks in the warmer parts of the world, the pecking order in F1 will remain the same as it has been.

Winter testing times might have hinted that fans could expect some real movement up and down the grid but single lap times need to be taken with a grain of salt. Renault and Toyota topped the time sheets at various venues but they won’t be on the front row of the grid in Australia. Torro Rosso and Force India were occasionally mid-pack in testing but don’t expect them to be trading paint with BMW or WilliamsF1 any time soon.

Success in Formula 1 is seldom instant, especially when the rules are as static as they have been the past few seasons. The traction control ban will result in more driver errors but these will be experienced by all the teams so it will balance out over the season. Typically, teams only make giant leaps backwards in performance from year to year - just ask Honda.

To really assess a team’s chances of success, it’s important to look at a team’s performance over several seasons. Were they quick but unreliable last season? Have they found reliability over the winter? Do they have the budget to continually develop the car? Is there continuity in the team with both drivers and designers? If the answer to all of these questions is yes, it might signal a readiness to move closer to winning. Might.

Over the next few days I’ll explain what I believe each of the F1 teams (hopefully 11 when we arrive in Melbourne) will achieve this season in F1 and why. There’s no science involved in this process, it’s all alchemy, beer and too much time spent on the internet. Enjoy!

The Front Runners

Ferrari - 2007 championship winners and dominant team of the decade, Ferrari look unlikely to suddenly come off the rails. Both drivers are returning and Kimi Raikonnen, who in mid 2007 looked shaky is now brimming with confidence in himself and his car. The team has had excellent form in winter testing and no major changes have taken place in the management or design departments. Clearly the team have shown that there is life after Ross Brawn and Michael Schumacher.

Like every other year, the coffers are also overflowing with cash and there will be a steady stream of development happening all season long. Verdict: Clear favorites to retain their titles.

McLaren -After a disastrous season that saw the team disqualified and one driver quitting at the end of the year, McLaren will be focused on steadying the ship and consolidating their efforts around Lewis Hamilton - regardless of whatever equality talk there is. McLaren had a strong technical package last season- it was off the track where things came apart. Neither driver has much experience developing or setting up the car and thanks to the spy scandal, there are some design restrictions around the 2008 car that might additionally hamper its ultimate development. Verdict: McLaren are the only team able to challenge Ferrari. Challenge, not beat.

Next: The Midfield

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