It’s a sad fact that there are five teams in this category but all of these teams are facing the possibility of single digit points tallies at the end of the season and frankly, that makes them pretenders. Amazingly, only one team can claim they don’t have the cash to develop a winning car and that’s Super Aguri. It’s a miracle they even made it to Australia but that’s a story for another time.

So, without further fanfare and because first practice is only a few hours away, here are my thoughts and predictions on the 2008 pretenders of F1.

Toyota - How a team can spend half a billion dollars (500,000,000.00 - would you look at those zeros!) year after year and accomplish nothing staggers the mind. Toyota might have deserved to be in the previous group I reviewed but frankly, there’s no reason to think that some of their recent testing times were anything other than publicity grabs. Until this team unshackles itself from the corporate boardroom in Japan it will continue to under perform. Not signing either Ross Brawn as Team Principle or Fernando Alonso - even for a season - was yet another missed opportunity. Verdict: Mega money to spend but just more mediocre results to show for it.

Honda - Apparently the hole that Honda fell into last year was deeper than anyone thought. Again, a racing team cannot be run from the boardroom in Japan. Honda installed a completely unqualified technical director in 2006 and sent a top designer packing. It made no sense but the results were devastating - from contenders to joke in one season. Hopefully with Brawn at the helm and an on-form Button behind the wheel they can turn the corner mid-season. The struggle back to the front is going to be a character builder for everyone in the team. Verdict: More upheaval expected within the design team and few trips to the final qualifying session until near the end of the year.

Scuderia Torro Rosso - The Red Bull juniors are still a driver development team running second hand cars. Bravo for giving Sebastian Bourdais a much overdue F1 drive. Whether either driver will have a breakout year is open to debate though most of the paddock seem to think that the other Sebastian - Vettel, is the real deal. The team have adequate funding but the development of the car will come only after it’s been proven with the Red Bull Racing Squad. Verdict: With the quality of teams ahead of them, I expect them in the barriers more often than the points.

Force India - This team chews up and spits out millionaire owners like a bad monster movie. Jordan - Midland - Spyker and now Force India - the name changing never stops! The team have had some moments in testing but I can remember when Prost looked like title contenders in winter testing only to go broke before the year was over. The driver pairing looks interesting if a bit optimistic. Giancarlo Fisichella has a reputation for doing big things when expectations are low and after his last three seasons with Renault expectations are definitely low. Adrian Sutil still seems a little wild but if he can get the better of Fisi then he’ll be on to bigger and better things. Verdict: No better results this year than what you would have expected from Midland or Spyker in the past.

Super Aguri - What high hopes everyone had for the little team of super friends. Now, bought out by a conglomerate of investors, one has to wonder if Super Aguri will be the next Jordan-Midland-Spyker-Force India. It’s quite obvious that it is not possible to enter F1 without serious corporate backing. Aguri have done almost zero development work on their 2008 car - in fact, it’s safe to say that all their efforts were put into surviving, not finding another tenth of a second. Whether the name or the team remain for long is open to debate and that’s a pity. Verdict: The year will be summed up in one word for the team and its fans - ‘disappointment.’

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Winter testing has just gotten underway for BMW so its a bit too soon to start firing chief designers and writing off the season but their new car is not drawing many accolades from its drivers. The F1.08 finished its first day of testing in Valencia, Spain behind the 2007 BMW driven by rookie tester, Marko Asmer. Day 2 was similarly poor. Could BMW be 2008’s Team Honda - from contenders to back markers in less than a year?

Veteran driver Nick Heidfeld has been candid in his assessment of the car, describing it as suffering from a balance problem. He believes they are behind in performance relative to their progress at this time last year. There are less than 50 days left before the F1 circus arrives in Melbourne, Australia to start the 2008 season so BMW will have its work cut out for itself.

The question is, can they get back on track? Fundamental problems were discovered with the Honda design last winter and the team nearly self destructed in its efforts to solve the problem. Experienced designers were sacked and at one point nearly everyone’s head was potentially on the chopping block. Can BMW stay focused and find a solution quickly enough to avoid falling to the midfield?

The answer is yes, probably. Nothing is ever certain in F1 but the team have a solid infrastructure, a state of the art wind tunnel and the budget to find their way forward. They also have two competent pilots in Heidfeld and Robert Kubica who know what they need from an F1 car to be competitive.

Waiting for BMW to stumble are Renault and WilliamsF1. Both teams are hungry, have at least one top driver, and know how to win in F1 - something BMW still needs to accomplish. There is no taking prisoners in F1 - just ask Honda. For all their recent success, BMW could find itself being mauled by rivals it easily had the measure of last season.

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Lewis Hamilton started his 2008 campaign much like he ended the2007 season, off course! The runner-up in last year’s Championship got off to a rocky start testing at Jerez, Spain today, finding himself beached in the gravel. Twice.

The first time it was just wet,” Hamilton said.

I touched the kerb and just went on to the edge of the gravel - it would be good if there were some proper run-off areas here - and then it was the same again in the afternoon.

“Without these controls helping you on the entry to corners there is a lot more locking of the rear wheels, and when you are on the limit and pushing that is what happens.

Pardon me for saying so, but shouldn’t driving a Formula 1 car at the limit be difficult? I understand that not having driver aids like traction control and engine braking available will make driving more difficult but really, F1 is a sport of supreme skill and control. If it was a piece of cake every cab driver and dentist from Pensacola to Piccadilly would be out there setting fastest laps and looking for a multi-million dollar contract.

Hamilton’s suggestion that larger (proper?) run off areas should be set up is a statement that leaves me wondering about the new generation of race drivers who are in F1 before most of us are out of college. I’m solidly in favor of safety in racing and I don’t want to see a race driver die. But, there must be consequences when a driver makes a mistake. If there are no consequences what will stop some idiot from driving beyond his abilities and hurting himself or someone else? I’d rather Lewis was a bit embarrassed to be sitting in the gravel than dead because he put his trust in a run off area.

Lewis had two trips beyond the limits of the car and lost valuable testing time stuck in the dirt. In a race the same mistakes would have ended his race - a consequence worth thinking about as you approach a corner. If that had been a run off area instead of gravel would he have pushed even deeper on the next lap, and the next until he had a massive accident? Hopefully the consequences of a mistake sunk in as he sat there waiting for a tow.

Today is a indication that traction control and other ‘driver aids’ made it too easy for drivers to get in a car and race - never needing to find the limit through experience. No disrespect to Lewis Hamilton but how much of his success was the man and how much was the computer in 2007? From today’s performance, I think the computer played at least a minor role in his unprecedented debut.

Here’s to 2008, year of the driver, not the driver aid.

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